Serie ANot Startedens-nn-tabm-poisson-v1
Win probabilityhow the model works
VeneziaDrawFiorentina
32%31%37%
1.0–1.2
Modeled xG
61%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams to score
Market consensus · 30 bookmakers1 2.67X 3.302 2.55
implied (vig removed): 35% · 28% · 37%
Probabilities from our own model — estimates, not certainties, and sometimes wrong.
Recent form
Form
Venezia
LLLLW
Form
Fiorentina
LLDWD
L
AC Milan2–0Away
Probabilistic projection, not advice. Forecasts are informational only and can be wrong. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Terms
